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RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra says gold is taking over the role once played by crude oil as the global risk barometer or gauge. Speaking at the Kautilya Economic Conclave 2025 on Friday, Malhotra noted that the steady rise in gold prices could reflect deepening global uncertainties, much like how crude oil prices used to signal economic stress in earlier decades.
Malhotra pointed out that nearly every nation faces significant financial pressure today, while a shifting global trade policy environment threatens to slow growth in key economies. He also warned that international stock markets, especially those driven by technology shares, appear unconcerned and could be headed for a correction soon.
The RBI Governor’s comments came just days after the central bank chose to keep the repo rate steady at 5.5% & maintained a neutral monetary policy stance. The policy statement observed that although the global economy has remained tougher than expected, its outlook remains uncertain due to constant geopolitical risks.
Highlighting a significant structural shift, Malhotra said crude oil prices have stayed unusually stable despite global tensions that would have once pushed them higher. He linked this to the decreasing oil force in GDP, not just in India but across major economies in the world, reflecting changing consumption patterns & energy transitions.
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“Perhaps gold prices are now showing the kind of movement that oil once did, acting as a barometer of global uncertainty,” the RBI Governor said at the Kautilya Economic Conclave 2025.
Sharing his views on various factors influencing global economic prospects, he said that equity markets, too, seem uninterested. Despite technology stocks leading most global stock rallies, the Governor said a "correction might be in the offering."
Meanwhile, gold prices continued their substantial increase on Friday. Spot gold edged to USD 3,867 per ounce, marking its seventh straight weekly gain. The precious metal had touched a record high of USD 3,896.9 on Thursday before settling slightly lower at USD 3,856.6 per ounce.
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