What will be the Expected Gold Rate in 2025 in India?

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Did you know India's gold demand was raised by 5% to 802.8 tons in 2024? This pops another thought about what the expected gold rate in 2025 in India will look like. With India breaking high records last year, this analysis will analyze past year's gold trends while learning the factors that shaped the gold markets in India.

But, now that India stands on the brink of digitalization with cryptocurrencies and AI reshaping the financial landscape, one question is asked by every investor, "could gold price really reach Rs.200,000 by 2030?

Hang with us through this entire piece for a list of the Best Gold Mutual Funds to uplift your current portfolio to newer heights.

Sneak peek into past: Why Gold Price Rising in India 2024?

Is It Challenging to Predict Gold Prices in India?

The short answer is yes; predicting gold prices correctly is not an easy task. However, the price of gold is influenced by N number of factors, such as inflation, central bank policies, geopolitical events and even technological advances, which make it difficult to pinpoint the exact gold prices in the future.

That is why you need an expert's opinion, as predictions are made based on historical trends and global economic conditions, keeping in mind the market sentiments of investors. By closely knowing the factors that influence gold prices, you can try to find a reasonable estimate for the future, including the expected gold rate in 2025 in India.

Gold Supply and Demand Breakdown

Here is a breakdown of the demand and supply of gold:

Supply Trends

Demand Trends

How Reliable Is the Gold Price Forecast for 2025?

Although it is quite challenging, the expected gold rate in 2025 in India is based on data-driven insights and analysis. For example, in 2018, experts predicted that gold would be priced around Rs.83,000 per 10 grams by 2025. But recently, they have raised their forecast to Rs.1,12,000 per 10 grams. This shows that predictions can change a lot over time.

You can see similar changes. For example, in 2010, it was predicted that gold would be around Rs.60,000 per 10 grams in 2020, but the actual price was much higher, around Rs.48,000 to Rs.55,000 per 10 grams.

So, even though experts give their best guesses, gold prices can be unpredictable because they depend on many things, like inflation, the economy and global events. In simple terms, the forecast for gold in 2025 could be higher or lower than expected, depending on what happens in the world.

Why Is It Challenging to Forecast Gold Prices?

Predicting gold prices is tough because many different factors affect its value and these factors can change unexpectedly. Here are some reasons why it’s hard to forecast gold prices:

1. Economic Changes: When the economy is doing well or facing a crisis, gold prices can change a lot. When there’s uncertainty or a downturn, people buy more gold as a safe option, which pushes the price up. But it’s hard to know when these changes will happen.
2. Political Issues: Things like wars, political unrest or trade problems can cause gold prices to go up, as people look for a safe place to invest. For example, the Russia-Ukraine conflict made many investors buy more gold. Predicting these events is not easy.
3. What Central Banks Do: Central banks can affect gold prices by changing interest rates or buying and selling gold. When banks buy gold, it can drive up the price. But we can’t always predict what central banks will do.
4. How Investors Feel: Investors have a big impact on gold prices. If they think gold will do better than stocks or other investments, they buy more, which raises the price. But investor feelings can change quickly, so it’s hard to predict.
5. Gold Is Different from Other Assets: Gold does not follow the price of other things like oil or stocks. It’s often seen as its own currency. When currencies like the Dollar lose value, gold usually goes up, but it doesn’t always happen in a predictable way.
6. Demand for Gold: Gold is in demand for things like jewellery and investment. When the economy is doing well, people buy more jewellery, but when there is uncertainty or fear of inflation, investment demand rises. It is hard to predict when this demand will change.

In short, gold prices depend on many factors that are unpredictable, so forecasting them accurately is difficult. While we can get a rough idea, the exact price is hard to know for sure.

Expected Gold Rate in 2025 in India: Key Factors to Watch

The price of gold in 2025 in India will be influenced by several important factors. Here are the main things to keep an eye on:

1. Investment Trends

• Bar and Coin Demand: People buying physical gold like bars and coins has been stable at around 1,186 tonnes globally. India and China have seen an increase in demand, while the US and Europe saw a decline. This is mainly because people in those regions are selling gold for profits, and inflation isn’t much of a concern there anymore. If demand continues to rise in India, gold prices could go up.
• Gold ETFs: After a few years of people selling off their gold ETFs (exchange-traded funds), the trend turned around in 2024. Small outflows were seen, but Q4 showed a significant inflow of 19 tonnes, as investors turned to gold to protect against economic uncertainty. This could continue in 2025, which may push gold prices up.
• OTC Investment: Over-the-counter (OTC) trading has slowed down in the last quarter of 2024, and there was a slight overall decline. While trading volume remained high, profit booking led to a slowdown. If this trend continues, it will affect the gold prices in 2025.

2. Central Bank Purchases

• Largest Buyers: Countries like Poland, India, and Turkey have been buying large amounts of gold, which could continue in 2025. India alone purchased 73 tonnes of gold in 2024. As central banks buy more gold, demand increases and this drives the price higher.

• Regional Buyers: Countries like China, Hungary and Serbia have also been increasing their gold reserves. These nations are reducing their reliance on the US dollar and diversifying into gold as a stable asset.
• Gold Sales: Some countries like the Philippines, Kazakhstan and Singapore have sold gold during high-price periods to balance their reserves. This shows that central banks are actively managing their gold reserves, which will affect the gold market in 2025.

3. Jewellery Demand

• China: China saw a 24% drop in gold jewellery demand, mainly because of high prices and weak economic conditions. Luxury goods, including gold jewellery, became less attractive.
• India: Despite the high prices, gold jewellery demand in India only fell by 2%. This is due to cultural reasons, such as weddings and festivals, where buying gold is a tradition. As a result, India continues to drive demand for gold jewellery, which could help keep gold prices steady in 2025. 
• Turkey & Middle East: Demand here has fluctuated. Turkey saw a boost in the last quarter of 2024, mainly because of price corrections and an increase in disposable income. As these trends continue, they could influence gold prices.
• US & Europe: Gold jewellery demand in these regions has been lower due to cost-of-living pressures. People are spending less on luxury goods, which could reduce overall gold demand in these markets.

4. Technology Sector Demand

• Electronics: The demand for gold in electronics has grown by 9% to 271 tonnes. This is mainly because of advancements in AI-driven technology, next-gen semiconductors and the rise of 5G networks. As more electronic products use gold, it will help drive up demand and push gold prices higher.
• Sustainable Tech: Gold is also being used in environmentally friendly technologies, like energy-efficient devices and renewable energy solutions.

Level-up Investments: Top Performing Green Energy Mutual Funds 2025

This growing demand for green technologies can contribute to higher gold prices in the coming years.

Are Gold Prices Expected to Increase or Decrease in 2025?

In 2025, gold prices are expected to go up for a few main reasons:

1. Bullish Outlook (Increase in Gold Prices)

Here are the reasons that leads to the prices of gold go up:

• Inflation Concerns

First, inflation is rising around the world, and when that happens, people often turn to gold as a way to protect their savings.

• Global Economic Uncertainty

Second, the global economy is still facing uncertainty from things like political issues and the effects of the pandemic, which makes gold a safer bet.

• Central Bank Buying

Central banks in countries, especially those in emerging markets, are also buying more gold to protect themselves from currency value drops.

2. Bearish Outlook (Decrease in Gold Prices)

However, some factors could push gold prices down as follows:

• Economic Recovery

When the global economy recovers strongly, interest rates goes up, which would make bonds and other investments more attractive than gold.

• Technological Advancements

In addition, as cryptocurrencies and new financial tools become more popular, people might invest less in gold.

In short, while gold prices might experience some ups and downs, the overall trend looks like they will increase in the long run due to inflation and economic uncertainties.

Expert’s Views on: Will Gold Rate Increase or Decrease in Future 2025?

Moving on, you will learn what the expected rate of gold in 2025-2030 will look like.

What Will Be the Gold Rate After 5 Years in India?

There is a strong possibility that gold prices could hit Rs.1,00,000 per gram by 2030. The rising demand from emerging markets, inflationary pressures, and geopolitical uncertainties all support the expected gold rate in 2025 in India to go up. Therefore, the gold rate prediction 2025 in India could reflect a gradual rise, with prices reaching Rs.70,000- Rs.90,000 per 10 grams by the end of the year 2025.

How Much Gold Do I Need in My Portfolio in 2025?

You can have 5-10% of your portfolio invested in Gold Mutual Funds as it serves as a good hedge against inflation and economic instability.

Here is a list of the top 5 gold Mutual Funds in India to start your SIP at the earliest:

Pro Tip: Get your SIP returns using the SIP Calculator free of cost.

Should I Buy Gold for Long-Term Investment in 2025?

The short answer is yes, gold is an excellent investment option for long-term gains. Plus, the gold prices have multiplied 6 times since 2000. Here is a graph showing how much price increased in different years:

If you had bought gold worth Rs.1,00,000 in the year 2000, today it would be worth Rs.6,20,000. This means that the price of gold has gone up 52 times since 1970.

In simple terms, gold has been a great investment over time, growing its value by more than 6 times from what you paid for it.

Conclusion: Final Thoughts on Expected Gold Rate in 2025

In short, this analysis concludes that the expected gold rate in 2025 in India is influenced by several of the above factors discussed. While it is challenging to pinpoint the exact prices of gold, it is worth every penny you invest in the top 5 gold mutual funds in 2025. Plus, you can take the SIP route to plan your investments like a pro strategically.

Likewise, gold mutual funds have always been a resilient investment option in turbulent markets of the mutual funds and their role as a strategic reserve asset remains stronger than ever.

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3. What is XIRR? Meaning, Full Form and How It Works?
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